Brazil’s state-run National Supply Company (known by the Portuguese initials CONAB) says the country is on course for a record coffee harvest in 2026, projecting a total yield of 66.7 million 60-kilogram bags. 

According to a media report, the forecast represents an increase of 18 percent over the previous crop and, if confirmed, will exceed the previous record of 63.08 million bags set in 2020. This robust outlook reaffirms Brazil’s dominance as the world’s largest coffee producer and exporter.

CONAB attributed the substantial anticipated increase primarily to a renewed surge in agricultural productivity and highly favourable climate conditions across key growing areas. The national average yield is expected to climb 13 percent to 34.4 bags per hectare, supported by a 3.9 percent expansion of the total area dedicated to coffee cultivation, reaching 2.34 million hectares.

[See more: China sends first consignment for $1.9 billion Brazilian bridge project]

The Arabica variety, which constitutes Brazil’s main export and the highest-value segment of the market, is forecast to reach 45.77 million bags. This 28 percent year-on-year increase is largely driven by the crop’s positive biennial cycle. Production of the Robusta variety, primarily utilised for instant coffee and industrial blends, is expected to see a slight 0.8 percent increase, reaching an estimated 20.9 million bags.

The state of Minas Gerais, which is Brazil’s most significant coffee-producing region, is predicted to account for nearly half of the total national output. Its production is forecast at 33.4 million bags, representing a sharp 29.8 percent increase from the previous year.

Despite this strong production forecast, official figures released by the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services show that coffee exports dropped 22.5 percent year on year. A total of 11.5 million bags were exported between January and April 2026. This fall in exports reflects restricted domestic inventories following smaller harvests in recent years, even as global demand for the commodity remains firm.