Macao’s gambling revenue dips in the second quarter, as football bets rise

The casino industry posted a gross gaming revenue (GGR) figure of approximately 61.2 billion patacas (US$7.59 billion) in the second quarter, as Macao’s gambling revenue underwent a 7.31 percent decline when compared to the 66.04 billion patacas (US$8.19 billion) earned in the previous quarter, and a drop of 2.6 percent year-on-year. 

By casino games, mass baccarat remained Macao’s main source of GGR in the second quarter, accounting for roughly 57 percent (35.16 billion patacas, US$4.36 billion) of Macao’s gambling revenue stream. It experienced a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3.79 percent, according to data from the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau. 

VIP baccarat, which made up almost 26 percent of GGR, witnessed a sharper quarter-on-quarter drop of 18.76 percent to 15.9 billion patacas (US$1.97 billion). 

Other games that contributed a sizable amount to Macao’s gambling revenue included slot machines, which represented 6.5 percent of the total. This category of games recorded a revenue of 4.11 billion patacas (US$509.78 million) in the second quarter, down 3.26 percent quarter-on-quarter. 

Why has Macao’s gambling revenue declined?

The decline in GGR in the second quarter is not unexpected, as analysts from banking firm Citigroup had warned earlier that the April to June period would “arguably” be the city’s “toughest quarter” following the lifting of Covid-19 tourism restrictions in 2023. 

In a statement posted earlier this month, Citigroup said Macao’s second quarter GGR would be “impacted by both the global [FIFA] soccer tournament and some extremely unfavourable hold rates” in the casino sector. 

Analysts, including those from Morgan Stanley, had anticipated a weaker performance for Macao’s gambling revenue in June and July due to punters shifting their attention to bets for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which ran between 11 June and 19 July. 

Data from Macao’s gaming watchdog certainly indicates a greater interest in football lottery during the second quarter. A total of 1.38 billion patacas (US$171.16 million) in football bets were made during the three-month period, up by nearly 33 percent over the 1.04 billion patacas (US$128.99 million) from the first quarter. 

[See more: Earnings outlook subdued as Macao casino margins tighten]

Overall, football bets generated a GGR of 126 million patacas (US$15.62 million) in the second quarter, a rise of 40 percent quarter-on-quarter. According to TDM, this figure is the highest quarterly total since the fourth quarter of 2020. 

Looking ahead, financial group Macquarie expects Macao’s gambling revenue in the third quarter to remain unchanged from the year before. The organisation believes the World Cup’s impact on GGR performance will persist in July, with a year-on-year decline of 7 to 11 percent projected for that month. 

In terms of the whole year, the Macao government is currently forecasting a cumulative GGR of 236 billion patacas (US$29.27 billion) – a figure that is below the projections of some analysts.