Following a robust first half of the year, Hong Kong’s government is set to revise its annual growth forecast upwards.
Hong Kong’s GDP outlook is being revised upwards, but can momentum last?
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After a stronger-than-expected first half, the government is set to raise its full-year growth forecast for Hong Kong’s GDP, while banks are already calling for a bigger rebound than officials.
Revised projection for Hong Kong’s GDP
- Hong Kong’s economy grew 5.1 percent year on year in the first half of 2026, Financial Secretary Paul Chan said in his Sunday blog.
- That’s strong enough to prompt the Census and Statistics Department to raise the city’s GDP forecast later this month, he wrote.
- The government’s current full-year forecast for Hong Kong’s GDP is 2.5 to 3.5 percent.
Why it matters
The upgrade would be a signal that Hong Kong’s recovery is proving more durable than officials initially expected, with exports, private consumption and financial activity all contributing to the first-half performance.
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An improved forecast would also give the government more confidence heading into the second half, even as officials stay mindful of external headwinds.
The bank view of Hong Kong’s GDP
- Standard Chartered has already raised its 2026 GDP forecast to 4.3 percent, from 3.2 percent, saying Hong Kong is benefiting from mainland-related financial flows, the AI “supercycle” and a local recovery.
- The bank says those drivers should help offset geopolitical risks and keep momentum firm through the rest of the year.
- HSBC also lifted its forecast for Hong Kong’s GDP earlier this year, to 3.8 percent from 2.7 percent.
What to watch
- See if the government’s new forecast will align with the more bullish bank calls.
- Take note of consumption, financial services and trade: will they keep doing the heavy lifting in the second half?
- Keep an eye on rising inflation or higher funding costs, which could start to weigh on the recovery.
Bottom line for Hong Kong’s GDP
Hong Kong’s economy has started the year more strongly than many expected, and policymakers now look poised to acknowledge that with a higher forecast. The bigger question is how much of the first-half strength can carry into the rest of 2026.
