To the moon, quite literally. 

The initial public offering (IPO) of Elon Musk’s SpaceX was filed last week with the commercial space behemoth and world’s premier launch provider ready to raise US$75 billion in what will be the largest float to hit markets since Saudi Arabia’s Aramco raised more than US$29 billion back in 2019.

The SpaceX IPO serves as a harbinger on multiple fronts. The company’s decision to list on Nasdaq shatters any hope for Hong Kong to top the IPO league tables for a second consecutive year after raising US$37 billion in 2025 on the back of robust appetite for Chinese AI startups. 

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But the deal is simultaneously asking its subscribers to fund a capital intensive platform on the promise of future infrastructure dominance. For investors, a weak debut might dampen the AI optimism that has propelled US equities higher.

Given the size of the SpaceX IPO, concerns have emerged whether the deal would drain market liquidity, a worry amplified by the potential listings of ChatGPT’s OpenAI and Claude’s Anthropic expected later this year. Taken together, the three private companies are valued at US$4 trillion and stand ready to not only assess investor appetite but also determine whether public equity fund managers will price these companies with the same optimism as private backers. 

Investor impact 

New Nasdaq listing rules are accelerating index inclusion for larger, less liquid companies and introducing another layer of complexity, insiders say, warning that tens of billions of dollars could be reallocated when major indices shuffle their constituents to accommodate any new entrants. 

“For years, Wall Street’s gains have become increasingly concentrated in a very small group of tech companies,” shared Nigel Green, chief executive officer of global financial advisory deVere Group, in comments sent to The Bay. 

“These three offerings could prompt a shift in institutional capital towards a new generation of AI and space giants and away from previous outperformers” he adds, noting that investors have become accustomed to a trading environment in which a narrow group of US tech stocks disproportionately drives benchmark returns.

JPMorgan estimates that nearly US$95 billion could rotate out of big tech firms and into SpaceX shares, with flow trajectory continuing when OpenAI and Anthropic come to market later this year. 

The outlook for Hong Kong

As executives behind the mega-deals begin their roadshows pitching to institutional investors, they are doing so amid languishing market performances in Hong Kong. 

The financial hub’s main index has moved sideways this year, posting losses and underperforming both US and regional bourses after climbing more than a third in 2025 and almost 50 percent since 2024. But even as some begin raising cash, few expect a massive liquidity exodus emanating from the region. 

“There won’t be a blanket withdrawal from Hong Kong, but it will absolutely force a reckoning,” remarked Alan Tse, chief investment officer of AA Capital, speaking to The Bay, noting that investors are expected to become very picky, very fast.

“Strong, cash-generative names in Hong Kong will hold up fine, but anything marginal and coasting on sentiment rather than fundamentals will struggle to compete for attention when trillion-dollar listings are hitting the tape,” Tse says 

Green from deVere Group agrees, noting that while some portfolio reallocation is inevitable, a successful IPO from any mega-listing would reinforce risk appetite globally and strengthen investor confidence towards innovation-led sectors more broadly. 

“Hong Kong’s own technology and AI-related companies are going to benefit from renewed enthusiasm for growth assets if sentiment remains constructive,” he says. 

“Once investors begin assigning valuations measured in hundreds of billions or even close to a trillion dollars, the entire global AI sector will be viewed through a different lens, improving fundraising conditions and attracting greater attention that may previously have been overlooked relative to US competitors.”

Still a top three venue

Despite its muted year-to-date performance, Hong Kong has debuted a number of blockbuster AI developers, like Zhipu’s Knowledge Atlas, and Mini Max.  

However, index losses have been more pronounced among Hong Kong-listed tech stocks due to a heavier representation of consumer discretionary names where e-commerce and electric vehicle companies are facing more intense operating environments. 

Morgan Stanley estimates that the inclusion of Chinese AI stocks into Hong Kong’s tech focus indices could attract US$1.75 billion in passive inflows, suggesting that even with mega-deals like SpaceX heading to Nasdaq, Hong Kong could still close out the year among the top three global IPO venues on the back of investors diversifying their geographic and sector exposure.  

After Hong Kong raised US$37 billion in 2025, analysts are forecasting nearly US$40 billion to float there this year, supported by a backlog of 500 companies. Deal flows remain resilient, as evidenced by a significant number of mainland A-share companies seeking to list in Hong Kong with the aim of attracting international investors. 

This pickup in Hong Kong IPO applications coincides with Beijing opening capital channels, as policymakers call for deeper integration between AI firms and advanced manufacturers to foster new economic growth drivers. 

[See more: Here are some of the exciting new technologies on display at Beyond Expo 2026]

Chinese companies deploying cost efficient large language models (LLMs) have already recognised operational improvements, with Morgan Stanley calculating that earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) margins for AI integrated companies have risen 13 percentage points since 2021 to 17 percent.

Still, many investors argue that a turning point will materialise after these mega US companies go public, creating a clear reference point for what a profitable AI business should look like amid index-driven volatility. 

“Tolerance for ‘price-to-dream’ is going to shrink, creating a tougher fundraising environment for any Chinese AI startup going forward,” AA Capital’s Tse cautions.