Forecasters halve Macao’s 2026 GDP growth projection

Macao’s 2026 gross domestic product (GDP) growth is forecast to drop from a baseline rate of 6.3 percent to 3.5 percent, according to updated macroeconomic predictions published by the University of Macau (UM) on 11 November 2026.

UM researchers explained that they reduced Macao’s projected economic growth due to the city’s sluggish casino revenue, which has been falling each month, using a year-on-year comparison, since June 2026.

Weak casino revenue weighs on Macao’s 2026 GDP growth

Data from the Macao government shows that the city’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) totalled 18.52 billion patacas (US$2.29 billion) in June 2026, down 12.1 percent year-on-year. In the subsequent months, casino revenue has continued to slow, dropping by 8.4 percent in July, 1.2 percent in August, 1.2 percent in September and 10 percent in October. 

According to UM, the year-on-year drop in Macao’s GGR was partly the result of the 2026 FIFA World Cup in June and July, which redirected attention to the football tournament.

[See more: IMF expects Macao’s economy to grow 3.3 percent in 2026]

Analysing the monthly data, the researchers pointed out that the opening of the World Cup contributed to visitor arrivals in June 2026 dipping 3.1 percent year-on-year. However, the total arrivals and the market rose again in July and August 2026. 

Meanwhile, China’s implementation of a new regulation in July 2026 to tighten outbound investment has also impacted the local industry, possibly reducing tourism and gaming expenditure among visitors. 

What external challenges is Macao’s economy facing? 

The university highlighted a number of other hurdles that Macao was facing economically. They included the instability in the Middle East, as well as rising interest rates and high inflation in the US. 

[See more: Macao’s October 2026 gambling revenue falls 10 percent to 21.68 billion patacas]

Macao’s 2026 GDP growth is also being weighed down by mainland China’s sluggish consumer spending and “a contraction in fixed-asset investment,” which has “resulted in uneven momentum” across growth drivers.

“Although the central government continues to support the development of high-tech industries, new policies concerning capital outflows pose a potential impact on Macao’s tourism revenue,” the researchers pointed out.

What other factors are impacting Macao’s 2026 GDP growth? 

In terms of domestic demand, UM reported a year-on-year growth in private consumption of 3.4 percent in the first quarter of 2026 and 2.1 percent in the second quarter, although much of the spending by residents was done outside of Macao.

Overseas expenditure grew by 13 percent and 4.2 percent in the first two quarters of 2026, while local spending grew by only 1.7 to 1.8 percent. 

Meanwhile, investment was said to be “highly volatile,” with gross fixed capital formation plummeting 21 percent year-on-year in the first quarter before increasing 4 percent in the following quarter. 

What other projections did UM make? 

Based on the current economic data, UM revised its forecasts across a number of other areas. It expects private consumption expenditure to rise 2.6 percent and the total gross fixed capital formation to fall 3.1 percent. 

Meanwhile, inflation, as measured by GDP deflator, is projected to increase 2.7 percent, while consumer prices are set to rise 1.1 percent. 

In the labour sector, the median monthly employment earnings are forecasted to grow 2.3 percent, with the overall unemployment forecast at 1.8 percent. 

Overall, the Macao government can expect a current revenue of 117.7 billion patacas in 2026.