IMF expects Macao’s economy to grow 3.3 percent in 2026

Macao’s gross domestic product (GDP) is forecast to expand by 3.3 percent in 2026, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in a statement released on 29 July, following an official mission to the SAR between 14 and 23 July. 

In its preliminary assessment, the IMF also projected that Macao’s medium-term economic growth would stabilise at around 3 percent.

It added that the local economy was being bolstered by its strong gambling and tourism sectors, allowing it to show resilience despite global headwinds. 

The organisation also pointed to the Macao government’s strong finances and robust banking system, as well as efforts to move away from its core industry of gambling. 

In terms of economic diversification, the IMF said Macao’s cooperation with the neighbouring Zhuhai island district of Hengqin was creating opportunities for local companies to develop in key industries such as health, finance, conventions and high technology. 

As well, plans to establish a 20 billion pataca Government Guidance Fund has the potential to help the city to further diversify. 

What challenges does Macao’s economy face? 

Despite its solid performance, Macao’s economy continues to face a number of challenges. The IMF mentioned that the SAR was still largely reliant on its gambling sector and mainland Chinese tourists, who form the bulk of visitor arrivals to the city. 

Additionally, Macao’s real GDP had not yet recovered to its pre-Covid-19 pandemic level, with gambling revenue 15 percent down in comparison to the peak level from before the pandemic. 

[See more: Macao’s economy grew 7.1 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026]

Factors such as an ageing population and declining birthrate were also said to be impacting the workforce, future growth and government spending. 

What can be done to address Macao’s economic challenges? 

To address the challenges to Macao’s economy, the IMF offered various recommendations. They involved improvements to areas such as the business environment, public administration efficiency, public financial management, talent attraction and cultivation, as well as the use of digital technology and AI as a means to enhance efficiency and reshape businesses. 

Concurrently, the IMF also suggested the Macao authorities take measures to strengthen the city’s resiliency against extreme weather events. 

Following publication of its statement, the IMF is set to publish a detailed report within the next two months.